Atlas · 2026-05-28
Two Years Under Tinubu. More violence. Wider spread. Deeper civilian cost.
“Nigeria's streets will be safe within my first year.” — Campaign commitment, 2023
Every one of eight measured indicators worsened against the May 2023 baseline.
10,000+
Killed by jihadists and criminal gangs
First 24 months · CFR / Amnesty International
3,000+
Kidnap victims in Kaduna alone
Jun 2023 – Dec 2024 · Premium Times
6th
Nigeria on the Global Terrorism Index
2025 · Institute for Economics & Peace
02 · Before & after
Before & After.
Buhari's final stretch was already grim. Tinubu's first stretch is worse on every published measure we can compare.
Reported violent-attack deaths, first 12 months in office
Buhari, 2015–16 (12 mo)
~3,800
Council on Foreign Relations Nigeria Security Tracker
Tinubu, 2023–24 (12 mo)
5,000+
Premium Times
Global Terrorism Index ranking
End of Buhari era, 2022
8th
GTI 2022
Under Tinubu, 2025
6th
GTI 2025
Foreign military action on Nigerian soil
Pre-Tinubu
0
Since independence, 1960
Tinubu
1
U.S. airstrike, December 2025
Documented mass-kidnap incidents per year
Buhari era
rising
Pattern established
Tinubu era
wider
Spread to states previously unaffected (Nigeria Security Tracker)
A note on the curve. Where ACLED monthly series would let us draw a true trend curve, we don't have it. The pairs above are published, named-source comparisons — directional, not interpolated.
03 · Where it is happening
Where it is happening.
The violence is not evenly distributed. These are documented incidents — by state, by event — under the current administration.
Borno. Maiduguri triple suicide bombing
Mar 2026 · scores killed, 200+ injured
Borno. Coordinated attacks on military bases
Mar 2026 · 14 killed (10 soldiers)
Niger. St. Mary's Papiri mass abduction
2024 · 303 students, 12 teachers
Kaduna. Kuriga schoolchildren abduction
Mar 2024 · 287 initially reported
Kaduna. State-wide kidnap victims
Jun 2023 – Dec 2024 · 3,000+ abducted
Plateau. Christmas Eve coordinated attacks
Dec 2023 · 200+ killed
Plateau. Bokkos massacre
2024 · Whole families killed; ~2,000 displaced
Zamfara. Farming-community mass kidnap
Jul 2023 · 100+ abducted
Katsina. Bandits overran military base
Sep 2023 · Soldiers killed, weapons seized
Kebbi. GGCSS Maga schoolgirls abduction
Nov 2025 · 25 taken; vice principal killed
Benue. Yelwata massacre testimony
2024 · Survivor told U.S. lawmakers she watched 5 of her children killed
Oyo. Ibadan funfair tragedy
Dec 2024 · 35 children died in food-and-cash distribution stampede
04 · The shape of the failure
Six failures, not one.
"Nigeria is unsafe" hides the shape of the problem. The insecurity has six distinct drivers, and the administration's response has been inadequate to each.
Jihadist insurgency
Boko Haram and ISWAP continue to operate. After years of relative calm, Maiduguri saw a triple suicide bombing during Ramadan 2026.
Scale. 40,000+ killed across 17 years; 2 million displaced
Vanguard Nigeria, AP / France24
Northwest banditry
Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto remain critical. Bandits overran a military base in Katsina in 2023.
Scale. Mass kidnappings every quarter; soldiers killed and weapons captured
Premium Times, Daily Trust, Ifri
Kidnap-for-ransom
Kidnap incidents up 25% against the 2023 baseline; the practice has spread to states previously unaffected.
Scale. 3,000+ victims in Kaduna alone; St. Mary's took 303 students at once
Nigeria Security Tracker, Premium Times, HRW
Farmer-herder & communal
Plateau, Benue, and the Middle Belt continue to absorb the casualties. Christmas Eve 2023 alone took 200+.
Scale. Repeated multi-village attacks; whole families killed
Premium Times, Daily Trust, Amnesty International
Southeast unrest
Sit-at-home enforcement by non-state actors paralyzed economic activity every Monday through 2024.
Scale. Region-wide economic suppression; targeted killings of officials
Sahara Reporters
Institutional failure
A coup plot was uncovered in September 2025. A U.S. airstrike on Nigerian soil followed in December 2025 — the first foreign military action since independence.
Scale. 16 officers arrested; 200 U.S. troops now training Nigerian forces
Wikipedia, Sahara Reporters, Africanews
05 · The human cost
What it cost the children.
Security failure does not arrive as a statistic. It arrives at a school gate, a market stall, a roadside, a funeral.
850,000 children
die in Nigeria each year from preventable causes
Health Minister Muhammad Pate, via Premium Times 2026
303 students + 12 teachers
taken from St. Mary's, Papiri, in a single abduction
Human Rights Watch
287 children
initially reported abducted from Kuriga, Kaduna
Multiple wire reports, March 2024
40 pupils
reportedly lost from one Islamic school in Mokwa
Local reports, verified for childrens-day-2026
2,000+ displaced
from Bokkos after whole families were killed in Plateau
Amnesty International
35 children
died in the Ibadan funfair stampede during a food-and-cash distribution
Multiple Nigerian outlets, Dec 2024
06 · This is not normal
This is not normal.
A partial roll-call of named events under this administration. Each line is sourced.
Jul 2023
Zamfara
100+ abducted from farming communities
Daily Trust
Sep 2023
Katsina
Bandits overran a military base, killing soldiers and seizing weapons
Premium Times
Dec 24, 2023
Plateau
Coordinated Christmas Eve attacks killed 200+
Premium Times
Mar 2024
Kaduna (Kuriga)
287 children initially reported abducted from school
Wire reports
Jul 31, 2024
Borno (Konduga)
Kauri marketplace suicide bomb killed 19
childrens-day-2026
Dec 2024
Oyo (Ibadan)
Funfair stampede: 35 children died at food-and-cash distribution
Multiple Nigerian outlets
2024
Plateau (Bokkos)
Whole families killed; ~2,000 displaced
Amnesty International
2024
Niger (Papiri)
St. Mary's: 303 students and 12 teachers abducted
Human Rights Watch
Sep 2025
Federal
Coup plot uncovered; 16 military officers arrested
Sahara Reporters / Wikipedia
Nov 17, 2025
Kebbi (Maga)
25 schoolgirls abducted from GGCSS; vice principal killed
childrens-day-2026
Dec 2025
Sovereignty
First foreign military action on Nigerian soil since independence: U.S. airstrike authorized
Wikipedia
Mar 16, 2026
Borno (Maiduguri)
Multiple suicide bombings during Ramadan — Monday Market, UMTH gate, Post Office market
AP / France24 / Daily Post